An Algorithm Has Successfully Predicted Each Dance Hit of 2015

As a blog writer, I’m charged with finding good music. ‘Good’ is a very relative term; vague in the utmost sense of the word. It’s my personal preference. However, my music library usually consists of more than just the hits. Why? Because of the lack of depth involved in a good majority of the world’s most loved tracks over the last 40 years.

The formula for what comprises a dance song hit isn’t very complex; for now, a computer algorithm has been created that, while in it’s infancy, has been able to predict with above-average accuracy if a tune will climb enough spots to make it to the top 10. The research the data scientists from the University of Antwerp in Belgium have conducted has singled out the genre of dance music, due to genre’s similar song structures.

The data is from the collection dance hits that hit the airwaves from 1985 through 2014, the algorithm was used to predict this years’ Billborad 2015 Hot Dance/Electronic Songs category with a 65 percent or higher probability of a hit for all of the top 10.

Billboard 2015 Hot Dance/Electronic Songs

“Lean On” by Major Lazer & DJ Snake Featuring M0 — 82%
“Where Are U Now” by Skrillex & Diplo With Justin Bieber — 72%
“Hey Mama” by David Guetta Featuring Nicki Minaj, Bebe Rexha & Afrojack — 72%
“You Know You Like It” by DJ Snake & AlunaGeorge — 63%
“Waves” by Mr. Probz — 68%
“Outside” by Calvin Harris Featuring Ellie Goulding — 82%
“Prayer In C” by Lillywood & Robin Schulz — 65%
“Blame” by Calvin Harris Featuring John Newman — 88%
“How Deep Is Your Love” by Calvin Harris & Disciples — 62%
“I Want You To Know” by Zedd Featuring Selena Gomez — 89%

139 different musical aspects were used to analyze songs with the theory that popular songs share particular features in which the majority of people find them to be appealing. With these certain features established, there are now guidelines and success markers in which to compare for its commercial potential. Unfortunately, with most algorithms, there are some aspects and markers that can’t be measured or are just left out because of the massive amount of variables included with said markers such as marketing budget, the social mood, the music video, or artist name recognition.

H/T: Your EDM